Has there been any research into whether euroscepticism is a function of age or of values? The 2019 Stack Overflow Developer Survey Results Are InIs there any research relating to reform and corruption in local and small scale authorities?Does the pre-election UK government have the authority to start Brexit talks before a new government is formed?Has any EU directive related to “solidarity tax” been discussed and approved after 2015?What can UK citizens do to replace first past the post with a proportional representation voting system?Is there a feasible route by which UK housing can be made more affordable without devastating the housebuilding sector and its employees?Has there been any EU reaction to Trump's threat to put a 25% tariff on all EU cars?What's the point in holding a second Brexit referendum?Would it be plausible to solve the Irish Border issue by unifying Ireland?Has there been a decline in EU-skepticism since Brexit?Is there any research on when voters made their mind up in the Brexit referendum campaign?
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Has there been any research into whether euroscepticism is a function of age or of values?
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Has there been any research into whether euroscepticism is a function of age or of values?
The 2019 Stack Overflow Developer Survey Results Are InIs there any research relating to reform and corruption in local and small scale authorities?Does the pre-election UK government have the authority to start Brexit talks before a new government is formed?Has any EU directive related to “solidarity tax” been discussed and approved after 2015?What can UK citizens do to replace first past the post with a proportional representation voting system?Is there a feasible route by which UK housing can be made more affordable without devastating the housebuilding sector and its employees?Has there been any EU reaction to Trump's threat to put a 25% tariff on all EU cars?What's the point in holding a second Brexit referendum?Would it be plausible to solve the Irish Border issue by unifying Ireland?Has there been a decline in EU-skepticism since Brexit?Is there any research on when voters made their mind up in the Brexit referendum campaign?
Has there been any research into whether euroscepticism is a function of age or of values.
If it is a function of age then euroscepticism should (assuming constant birth/death rates) remain constant as everyone ages. But if it is a function of values, and if values are divided generationally, then we might expect a shift in eurosceptic majorities.
united-kingdom european-union
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Has there been any research into whether euroscepticism is a function of age or of values.
If it is a function of age then euroscepticism should (assuming constant birth/death rates) remain constant as everyone ages. But if it is a function of values, and if values are divided generationally, then we might expect a shift in eurosceptic majorities.
united-kingdom european-union
add a comment |
Has there been any research into whether euroscepticism is a function of age or of values.
If it is a function of age then euroscepticism should (assuming constant birth/death rates) remain constant as everyone ages. But if it is a function of values, and if values are divided generationally, then we might expect a shift in eurosceptic majorities.
united-kingdom european-union
Has there been any research into whether euroscepticism is a function of age or of values.
If it is a function of age then euroscepticism should (assuming constant birth/death rates) remain constant as everyone ages. But if it is a function of values, and if values are divided generationally, then we might expect a shift in eurosceptic majorities.
united-kingdom european-union
united-kingdom european-union
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BenBen
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The majority has already shifted if polls are anything to go by (though beware, polls also suggested Remain would win), and yes, opinion on the topic very much depends on the age:
However, support and opposition for withdrawal from the EU are not evenly distributed among the different age groups: opposition to EU membership is most prevalent among those 60 and older, with a poll from 22–23 March 2015 showing that 48% of this age group oppose EU membership. This decreases to 22% among those aged 18–24 (with 56% of 18- to 24-year-olds stating that they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU).
Also, the Conservative party is in a pickle at the moment because it no longer attracts young voters. See e.g. Nick Boles, who recently resigned the Tory Whip, commenting on that on this podcast.
add a comment |
Yes, lots of surveys tie euroscepticism, or more precisely Leave preference to age. Here's a one with a large sample:
We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question.
We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. [...]
We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.
But as you noted, preferences also change with age, so one should not jump to conclusions just based on mere distribution by age now. On the other hand, not only are younger generation less eurosceptic than the elders, but they are also more pro-European than previous generations were at the corresponding age, apparently because newer cohorts are more educated. Nevertheless one should still not jump to unwarranted conclusions because other factors may play a (larger) role as well:
In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key.
The big question is whether these other factors (economic etc.) will override the demographic trend.
Also, assuming Brexit happens, it's not impossible to conceive that anti-EU education may even reverse the cohort trend in long run, i.e. newer cohorts may start to be less pro-EU at the same age than the current cohort due to, say, highly nationalist education they might start to receive in schools. Even less sinister scenarios can have the same effect: emigration of the more educated to the EU because of the bad post-Brexit economic conditions in the UK. (The emigration of the young and educated is big deal in Greece for instance.)
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2 Answers
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oldest
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2 Answers
2
active
oldest
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The majority has already shifted if polls are anything to go by (though beware, polls also suggested Remain would win), and yes, opinion on the topic very much depends on the age:
However, support and opposition for withdrawal from the EU are not evenly distributed among the different age groups: opposition to EU membership is most prevalent among those 60 and older, with a poll from 22–23 March 2015 showing that 48% of this age group oppose EU membership. This decreases to 22% among those aged 18–24 (with 56% of 18- to 24-year-olds stating that they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU).
Also, the Conservative party is in a pickle at the moment because it no longer attracts young voters. See e.g. Nick Boles, who recently resigned the Tory Whip, commenting on that on this podcast.
add a comment |
The majority has already shifted if polls are anything to go by (though beware, polls also suggested Remain would win), and yes, opinion on the topic very much depends on the age:
However, support and opposition for withdrawal from the EU are not evenly distributed among the different age groups: opposition to EU membership is most prevalent among those 60 and older, with a poll from 22–23 March 2015 showing that 48% of this age group oppose EU membership. This decreases to 22% among those aged 18–24 (with 56% of 18- to 24-year-olds stating that they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU).
Also, the Conservative party is in a pickle at the moment because it no longer attracts young voters. See e.g. Nick Boles, who recently resigned the Tory Whip, commenting on that on this podcast.
add a comment |
The majority has already shifted if polls are anything to go by (though beware, polls also suggested Remain would win), and yes, opinion on the topic very much depends on the age:
However, support and opposition for withdrawal from the EU are not evenly distributed among the different age groups: opposition to EU membership is most prevalent among those 60 and older, with a poll from 22–23 March 2015 showing that 48% of this age group oppose EU membership. This decreases to 22% among those aged 18–24 (with 56% of 18- to 24-year-olds stating that they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU).
Also, the Conservative party is in a pickle at the moment because it no longer attracts young voters. See e.g. Nick Boles, who recently resigned the Tory Whip, commenting on that on this podcast.
The majority has already shifted if polls are anything to go by (though beware, polls also suggested Remain would win), and yes, opinion on the topic very much depends on the age:
However, support and opposition for withdrawal from the EU are not evenly distributed among the different age groups: opposition to EU membership is most prevalent among those 60 and older, with a poll from 22–23 March 2015 showing that 48% of this age group oppose EU membership. This decreases to 22% among those aged 18–24 (with 56% of 18- to 24-year-olds stating that they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU).
Also, the Conservative party is in a pickle at the moment because it no longer attracts young voters. See e.g. Nick Boles, who recently resigned the Tory Whip, commenting on that on this podcast.
edited 4 hours ago
answered 4 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
14.9k34069
14.9k34069
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Yes, lots of surveys tie euroscepticism, or more precisely Leave preference to age. Here's a one with a large sample:
We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question.
We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. [...]
We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.
But as you noted, preferences also change with age, so one should not jump to conclusions just based on mere distribution by age now. On the other hand, not only are younger generation less eurosceptic than the elders, but they are also more pro-European than previous generations were at the corresponding age, apparently because newer cohorts are more educated. Nevertheless one should still not jump to unwarranted conclusions because other factors may play a (larger) role as well:
In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key.
The big question is whether these other factors (economic etc.) will override the demographic trend.
Also, assuming Brexit happens, it's not impossible to conceive that anti-EU education may even reverse the cohort trend in long run, i.e. newer cohorts may start to be less pro-EU at the same age than the current cohort due to, say, highly nationalist education they might start to receive in schools. Even less sinister scenarios can have the same effect: emigration of the more educated to the EU because of the bad post-Brexit economic conditions in the UK. (The emigration of the young and educated is big deal in Greece for instance.)
add a comment |
Yes, lots of surveys tie euroscepticism, or more precisely Leave preference to age. Here's a one with a large sample:
We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question.
We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. [...]
We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.
But as you noted, preferences also change with age, so one should not jump to conclusions just based on mere distribution by age now. On the other hand, not only are younger generation less eurosceptic than the elders, but they are also more pro-European than previous generations were at the corresponding age, apparently because newer cohorts are more educated. Nevertheless one should still not jump to unwarranted conclusions because other factors may play a (larger) role as well:
In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key.
The big question is whether these other factors (economic etc.) will override the demographic trend.
Also, assuming Brexit happens, it's not impossible to conceive that anti-EU education may even reverse the cohort trend in long run, i.e. newer cohorts may start to be less pro-EU at the same age than the current cohort due to, say, highly nationalist education they might start to receive in schools. Even less sinister scenarios can have the same effect: emigration of the more educated to the EU because of the bad post-Brexit economic conditions in the UK. (The emigration of the young and educated is big deal in Greece for instance.)
add a comment |
Yes, lots of surveys tie euroscepticism, or more precisely Leave preference to age. Here's a one with a large sample:
We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question.
We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. [...]
We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.
But as you noted, preferences also change with age, so one should not jump to conclusions just based on mere distribution by age now. On the other hand, not only are younger generation less eurosceptic than the elders, but they are also more pro-European than previous generations were at the corresponding age, apparently because newer cohorts are more educated. Nevertheless one should still not jump to unwarranted conclusions because other factors may play a (larger) role as well:
In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key.
The big question is whether these other factors (economic etc.) will override the demographic trend.
Also, assuming Brexit happens, it's not impossible to conceive that anti-EU education may even reverse the cohort trend in long run, i.e. newer cohorts may start to be less pro-EU at the same age than the current cohort due to, say, highly nationalist education they might start to receive in schools. Even less sinister scenarios can have the same effect: emigration of the more educated to the EU because of the bad post-Brexit economic conditions in the UK. (The emigration of the young and educated is big deal in Greece for instance.)
Yes, lots of surveys tie euroscepticism, or more precisely Leave preference to age. Here's a one with a large sample:
We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question.
We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. [...]
We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.
But as you noted, preferences also change with age, so one should not jump to conclusions just based on mere distribution by age now. On the other hand, not only are younger generation less eurosceptic than the elders, but they are also more pro-European than previous generations were at the corresponding age, apparently because newer cohorts are more educated. Nevertheless one should still not jump to unwarranted conclusions because other factors may play a (larger) role as well:
In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key.
The big question is whether these other factors (economic etc.) will override the demographic trend.
Also, assuming Brexit happens, it's not impossible to conceive that anti-EU education may even reverse the cohort trend in long run, i.e. newer cohorts may start to be less pro-EU at the same age than the current cohort due to, say, highly nationalist education they might start to receive in schools. Even less sinister scenarios can have the same effect: emigration of the more educated to the EU because of the bad post-Brexit economic conditions in the UK. (The emigration of the young and educated is big deal in Greece for instance.)
edited 3 hours ago
answered 3 hours ago
FizzFizz
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14.8k23796
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